Braves Win Weekend, Prepare For Houston
The Braves avoided dropping the rubber match of the series in Miami thanks to some late-inning heroics from the hottest hitter on the planet, Marcell Ozuna. His three-run homerun in the top of the 9th put the Braves on top for good. When Marcell came to the plate with two on & two out, the Braves were down 7-6 with a 14% win probability. His three-run swat raised that probability up to 91.6%, the highest win percentage of the game for the Braves until three defensive outs later when the Marlins ran out of outs. Ozuna finished the game with the most “win percentage added” of any player, logging .968 WPA. Dylan Lee had the least WPA with -.258, which was .001 worse than Jesus Luzardo’s -.257 WPA.
Going 7-for-13 over the weekend, Marcell is carrying the Braves offense squarely on his shoulders here in the early going. Marcell paces the Braves in the following offensive categories: batting average (.373), homeruns (7), RBI (21), OBP (.413), slugging percentage (.780), OPS (1.193), & hits (22).
The Ozuna character arc over the last four seasons is the only phenomenon I find comparable at the present moment to the percentage of Braves offense he’s been personally responsible for. His offensive contributions have not only been welcome, they’ve been necessary. Seemingly every game this month has the pitching staff has allowed five or more runs; in reality, it’s been seven of the month’s eleven contests. Even so, the Braves are 7-4 in those games, 9-5 overall. A record good enough to be two games ahead of Philadelphia for the division lead.
Following the series finale, Atlanta sent Allan Winans back down to the farm, opting to bring up Darius Vines. Vines has been a guy on my radar for about three years. He has MLB stuff, attracting 23 whiffs in his most recent minor league start. He’s dealt with some injury problems, but that’s more norm than the outlier in today’s game. Prior to last season, I even had him on my short-list of guys I expected to be given a legitimate look at the big league level should there be a substantial injury to one of our starters. That prediction somewhat came to fruition, as he appeared in five games last season, starting two. Over those five games he threw 20.1 innings, striking out 14, while surrendering nine earned runs & three homeruns. He carried a respectable 1.082 WHIP into the offseason along with a 113 ERA+ (100 is league average, so he was an above league average pitcher).
Vines will get the start Monday in Houston for Game One against Spencer Arrighetti. Arrighetti’s 0-1 on the season with a 21.00 ERA, with three strikeouts over three innings pitched.
Translation: Atlanta SHOULD be able to supply Vines with enough run support to earn his second career MLB win.