Correa Is The Answer, Here’s Why
First, let’s establish that the root of every free agent acquisition a General Manager executes is the solution to a problem or weakness he sees in their current roster; point blank period.
Second, let’s survey the pool of current free agent position players. The top tier of unsigned free agents are: Freddie Freeman, Carlos Correa, Kris Bryant, Nick Castellanos, Trevor Story, & Michael Conforto.
Third, let’s make it known that today’s players want security in the form of contract length. So the top tier free agents will demand anywhere from 5 years to 10 years.
If you’re going to sign a player to a long contract then it stands to reason that you want the expensive years of team control to overlap as much as possible with the player’s prime. The first thing you look at when you’re addressing that criteria is the age of the potential acquisition. So in that top tier the ages are: Freeman-32, Correa-27, Bryant-29, Castellanos-29, Story-29, Conforto-28.
Just by age alone, the “remaining prime years” rankings are as follows:
Carlos Correa
Conforto
Bryant, Castellanos, Story
Freddie Freeman
Fourth, you want a winner. You can play the organization card all you want; sometimes justifiably so, but winning doesn’t come natural to everyone. You have to learn how to win.
In that top tier of free agents, the guys that separate themselves from the pack in terms of winning are without a doubt: Correa & Freeman, maybe Bryant.
All three of those guys have a World Series ring. Correa has had multiple trips to the World Series & his Houston Astro’s have been to the last five American League Chalpionship Series’. Freddie obviously won the most recent World Series. Outside of their World Series title seasons: Freddie was the one guy for Atlanta that was there for the entirety of a rebuild and into the glory days. Correa’s arrival in Houston was sort of the signal to baseball that the players that were charged with saving the Astros, had arrived. His Astros have been to the postseason every year but 1 (2016) since his debut.
Advantage: Correa.
Fifth, and probably most importantly, is he affordable?
The Atlanta Braves ended last season with a total payroll of $153,112,625. Currently, including arbitration contract value predictions included, the Braves payroll is $125,925,000. Without Dansby’s projected arbitration contract that’s $115,825,000.
So to get back to the exact same payroll that we know for a fact that Liberty Media is comfortable with, the Braves have $37,287,625 of room. But we know that we have more, General Manager Alex Anthopoulos has publicly stated that the payroll will increase this season. For the sake of this exercise, let’s set our budget at $170,000,000; that’s roughly $17M more to spend. Nothing crazy.
So far, the biggest contract that Freddie’s been rumored to want is a 6-year contract worth $200,000,000. That’s an Average Annual Value (AAV) of $33,333,333.
According to Carlos Correa, he’s looking to sign a contract similar to the one Francisco Lindor signed with the Mets last offseason. That contract is for 10 years at $341,000,000; AAV of $34M. This offseason, Corey Seager signed a 10-year/$325M contract, AAV of $32.5M.
Correa’s contract potential is probably somewhere between the two. Let’s say 10-year/$335M, AAV of $33.5M.
So that’s $33.5M a year for Correa in his age 27-37 seasons versus $33.3M a year for Freeman’s age 32-38 seasons.
Add that Correa contract to the current payroll & you’re sitting at $149,325,000. With a $170,000,000 budget, you have $20,675,000 left to spend.
Advantage: Correa.
Anthopoulos’ Decisions
Question #1: What weakness/problem/loss am I addressing with my biggest free agent acquisition?
Answer #1: You’re replacing the face of the franchise. The face that has World Champion pedigree, MVP pedigree, Gold Glove pedigree, & team leader pedigree.
Question #2: Who in the free agent pool checks all those boxes?
Answer #2: Freddie Freeman & Carlos Correa.
Question #3: Who brings more value over the life of the contract for the monetary value of their contract?
Answer #3: This is where feathers will be ruffled. It’s Carlos Correa. Correa plays a premium position, at shortstop. Correa is 5 years younger than Freddie & has accomplished everything Freddie has, & more. Carlos has more positional flexibility. In that, when his range decreases, he can move to 3rd; when he’s no longer the best option there or he ages, he can DH. When Freddie’s no longer the best option at 1st, he only has the DH to fall back on. If Correa signs a 10-year contract the very minute the lockout ends he will be 37 years old when it expires. Which is still younger than Freddie will be if he signs a 6-year contract at the exact same time.
Now Dansby
Now, we’ve identified Correa as being Free Agent Target #1. But we already have a shortstop, Dansby Swanson. To project Dansby’s career moving forward, you start with his past.
Swanson’s best tool is his defense. Correa’s defense is better. Even though awards aren’t end-all measuremenst of defense: Correa has a Gold Glove, Platinum Glove, & Fielding Bible Award while Dansby has none of those.
Carlos is a Two-Time All-Star. Dansby has never been an All-Star.
Carlos was selected to the 2017 All-World Baseball Classic Team. Dansby’s never even been selected to represent his country in the World Baseball Classic.
Carlos debuted one year sooner than Dansby & has 56 more homeruns, 174 more RBI, 104 more Runs, 183 more hits, higher OBP, higher Batting Average, higher Slugging Percentage, higher OPS, higher walk%, & lower strikeout%.
Also, Correa wins the WAR battle with a career 34.1 WAR compared to Dansby’s 8.8.
Sign Him
All that to backup what I said in the title: Correa is the Answer. In every way, Correa is the Answer. Whatever you need, Correa is the Answer.
Something I didn’t mention above - even though every fanbase thinks it won’t happen to them, it will happen to them - if the Braves are able to sustain this level of success for a number of years, they will become the villain. America loves the underdog. This most recent World Series, the Braves were America’s team. We were the last hope to stop Houston from getting the satisfaction of saying “See, we can do this without cheating”. But just like the Golden State Warriors (they were just the most recent prominent team I thought of); they were the NBA darlings with the Splash Brothers smothering teams with a flurry of 3’s in this new style of basketball.
Then Kevin Durant joined them and America started to turn on them for being a “Super-Team”. They embraced it, mainly Draymond Green, and they used it to win two more titles.
If the Braves win enough, they’ll become the villain.
Who better to show them how to embrace it, harness it, & turning into more success than the man who seemingly took on the World when they came for Houston in response to the 2017 scandal? No one.
Carlos Correa is ABOUT. THAT. LIFE. He’s the best example baseball has of the guy you hate if he’s on another team but you would take a bullet for him if he was wearing your team’s uniform.
Or maybe it’s just me: I love a good villain.