In-Depth: Vaughn For Sale
In true Anthopoulos fashion, he’s acquired a player that NO ONE saw coming.
The Atlanta Braves sent Vaughn Grissom to the Boston Red Sox in exchange for LHP Chris Sale & cash ($17 million, to be exact).
Grissom, a fan-favorite of sorts, was clearly the odd man out in Atlanta with no solidified defensive position of value on a team with eight of nine positions basically locked up. The other position was seemingly - now for sure - locked up with the acquisition of Jarred Kelenic earlier in the offseason. Kelenic’s addition plus the subtraction of Grissom all but confirms that the Braves have left the Left Field-by-platoon approach in the dust. Look for Kelenic to be an everyday player this season like his outfield mates. The Braves clearly believe in him the way they do with Harris II & Ronald in the box against same-side arms.
Now to what we received…
Chris Sale, For Better or Worse
Chris Sale is under contract for this coming season for $27,500,000; but after deferments his salary comes out to $8,600,000 against the Luxury Tax. 2025 (his age 36 season) is a Vesting Option for $20,000,000 with a Top-10 finish in Cy Young voting & healthy; $5M of the $20M is deferred to the year 2040. He becomes an unrestricted free agent following the 2025 season.
If you’re thinking to yourself “we owe him $20M if he pitches well?!”…Charlie Morton outplayed his $20M salary last season and we owe him $20M this coming season. If we owe Chris Sale $20M in 2025 it’s because we had best-case scenario Chris Sale in 2024.
So, for argument’s sake, let’s say we have Chris Sale for two years.
The best two-year stretch of his career came in 2017 & 2018, his first two seasons with the Boston Red Sox. Over those two seasons:
Started 59 games
29-12 record
League-leading 214.1 innings pitched in 2017, followed by 158 in 2018
Combined 2.50 ERA
Career-high & league-leading 308 strikeouts in 2017 (second time), followed by 237 in 2018
League-leading 2.45 FIP (Field-Independent Pitching) in 2017, followed by 1.98 in 2018
League-leading 12.9 strikeouts-per-9 (SO9) in 2017, followed by 13.5 SO9 in 2018
In both seasons he was an All-Star, finished top-5 in Cy Young voting, & received MVP votes
He also holds MLB’s all-time career record of 11.1 strikeouts-per-9. In other words, no one else in the history of Major League Baseball has struck out a higher percentage of batters faced, than Chris Sale.
Now his career-worst two-year stretch…
Since he barely pitched in 2022, I’m turning a two-year stretch into the three-year stretch of 2021-2023. In those three seasons:
Started 31 games
11-7 record
149.6 innings pitched
Combined 3.54 ERA
182 strikeouts
Combined 3.3 FIP
Combined 9.9 SO9
That stretch comes with extenuating circumstances not visible in his stat-line…He only started two games for a combined 5.2 innings in 2022 before being put on the shelf for the remainder of the season due to injury. He also only started nine games in 2021 due to injury. Two of the last three seasons have been his unhealthiest; except 2020, when he didn’t pitch at all.
The most recent data we have for Sale is this past September (arbitrarily); in which he started five games for a combined 25 innings. Over that brief stretch, the Red Sox were 2-3 against the Orioles, Royals, White Sox, & Blue Jays; with their two wins coming against the Royals & White Sox.
How He Fits
Sale enters a rotation of (for sure) Max Fried, Spencer Strider, & Charlie Morton; surely slotting in ahead of Charlie Morton.
With a healthy Chris Sale, there is NO BETTER rotation in baseball than the Atlanta Braves’. The bad news is, the rotation wasn’t to blame for the early exit this past postseason. The top four give the Braves the rare-but-preferred arm sides of Left-Right-Left-Right.
In an earlier article I stated how it was much more likely that the Braves add a starting pitcher via trade than in free agency. I just had no idea, neither did any of the beat reporters closest to the team, that Chris Sale was even a possibility. Nothing about a Chris Sale acquisition made sense at first glance:
Lengthy & troubling injury history.
When healthy, he’s a guy you build your rotation around. Making him both valuable to Boston as well as expensive for the Braves.
He’s owed a lot of money.
Then the trade was announced, I dug deeper and realized:
His most recent stretch of baseball is the healthiest he’s been since 2019.
Boston was clearly ready to move on from Sale when all they asked for in return was Vaughn Grissom, the odd man out of Atlanta’s defensive & offensive lineup.
Boston is paying $17 million of his $17.5 million salary in 2024. His full 2024 salary is $27.5 million, but $10 million is deferred until 2039.
Atlanta will be paying $500,000 actual dollars to Chris Sale in 2024. For reference, the league minimum salary in 2024 will be $740,000; up from $720,000 in 2023.
If he meets the requirements for the Vested Club Option in 2025, it’ll likely come on the back of a season that was better than the probably-departing Max Fried. Leaving Atlanta with a 2025 rotation of Spencer Strider, Chris Sale, & any two of the plethora of organizational arms + an outside addition to complete the 5-man corps.
The floor for this acquisition is we pay half a million dollars to a guy that doesn’t pitch a full season in 2024 in exchange for a AAAA player that couldn’t crack the starting lineup of a Braves team starving for continuity in LF & SS (both positions in which Grissom was considered); then cut ties after the season.
The ceiling for this acquisition is we sent away Vaughn Grissom to receive a LEGITIMATE mid-rotation starter who has occasional top-of-the-rotation performances that we pay less than the league minimum salary.
And yet, people continue to doubt Alex Anthopoulos…