My 2022 NL East Final Standings Prediction
This year’s National League East has ALL the makings to be the best division in baseball. The division has everything a baseball fan could possibly want: multiple top-5 players in the league, multiple top-10 rotations in the league, the best hitter in baseball, the best pitcher in baseball, the best bullpen in the league, three of the top lineups in the league, & some of the most accomplished managers in the league.
Let’s be honest though, picking the division winner was the easiest part of this exercise. The middle pack was where my thinking cap was put to good use.
I’m not going to predict final records because that’s just an arbitrary number that computers compute. Nobody knows; if they claim to know, they’re blowing smoke up your hind end.
So here we go. We’re going to work these standings from the bottom, up…
5. Washington Nationals
Washington is in full-blown rebuild mode. They have the best hitter in Major League Baseball in Juan Soto, paired with newcomer DH-extraordinaire Nelson Cruz. Those two will win a few games all by themselves this year. Beyond them, my only guess as to why someone would buy season tickets in the nation’s capital (beyond loyalty) would be seeing their future. Josiah Gray is a future staff ace, coming over last season from the Dodgers in the Scherzer/Turner trade. Maybe Kieboom will take a step forward this season? Probably not, but maybe.
4. Miami Marlins
Miami’s on the same trajectory as Washington, just farther along. They have a surplus in young arms, both at the Major League level as well as the MiLB level. Alcantara, López, Luzardo, & Rogers will turn heads when they figure it out. Waiting just below the MLB level they have Sixto Sanchez, Meyer, & Eury Perez. They’re setup for the next decade on the mound, barring chaos. Relievers Anthony Bender & newcomer from the Orioles Cole Sulser can shut down a lineup for an inning or two at a time. Then their bats…young superstar Jazz Chisholm Jr. is an electric factory on the basepaths. Atlanta World Series hero Jorge Soler just signed a multi-year deal to mash baseballs in South Beach. And former Tampa Bay Ray Joey Wendle is an underrated utility man. The Marlins ceiling is 3rd in the NL East, but I just don’t see them finishing below the Nationals.
3. New York Mets
Ah, the Mets. Fresh off a season where they’re being remembered for collapsing down the stretch & being booed as a fanbase by their franchise cornerstone shortstop & deadline acquisition Javier Baez. For the 35th year in a row, they’re a popular pick by the national baseball media to win the division & make a deep run in the postseason. I just don’t see it. They bolstered their outfield with MLB veterans Starling Marte & Mark Canha. They took their rotation to the next level…on paper.
On paper their rotation of deGrom, Scherzer, Bassitt, Walker, & Carrasco are a top-3 rotation in baseball. But anyone who pays attention to the Mets knows it never pans out that way. deGrom has an injury history longer than Lester Hoyt’s arrest record. Scherzer isn’t getting any younger & couldn’t even start against the Braves last postseason because he had dead arm. Carrasco is always hurt. Bassitt took a baseball off the face last year and missed significant time.
Scherzer & deGrom are ALREADY hurt. Walker is now scheduled to start Opening Day for them as of right now. I just don’t think they have the lineup to absorb the inevitable injury problems the rotation will present.
2. Philadelphia Phillies
Speaking of lineups, the Phillies General Manager has constructed a home run-or-bust batting gauntlet. Legitimately, they’re trying to win baseball games by playing slow-pitch softball. Quite possibly the worst defensive team in baseball, they’ll rely on scoring 6+ runs per game to secure a wildcard spot. Last year’s MVP Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, Rhys Hoskins (if he bounces back), Jean Segura, & JT Realmuto is just unrelenting.
deGrom is the only starter on New York’s staff that can hold these guys at bay. Which is why I just don’t see New York being able to fend off Philly for the 2nd spot in the East.
Philly also has a sneaky good rotation. Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, & Zach Eflin are a formidable top-three. Two former Cy Young candidates & Eflin, who seems to excel against Atlanta, will keep it respectable behind the Braves.
They are not a team people will line up to play against in the postseason, I can tell you that.
1. Atlanta Braves
No change from the last four seasons, the Braves will win the division, & it won’t be particularly close heading into the final week of the season. The defending World Champions somehow got better from last season. They won the title without Ronald Acuña, Marcell Ozuna, & Mike Soroka. All of which will return this season. Soroka’s rumored to be back around the All-Star Break & Acuña to be back in May, that’s worlds better than last year’s outfield in the 1st half. Even with Freddie departing, we brought in Matt Olson & locked him in for the remainder of the 2020’s. Olson is already a star, but he’ll develop into a superstar here with the Braves. Statistically, he was better than Freddie last season, so…
Our rotation returns Charlie Morton, Max Fried, Ian Anderson, & Huascar Ynoa; and adds Kyle Wright, Spencer Strider/Tucker Davidson (depending on the matchup). The front three can compete with anybody, already have; they won the World Series last season. Ynoa was the best pitcher on the team last year before he lost his boxing match with the Brewers dugout, & Spencer Strider throws 100.
Then they turn it over to the bullpen? The best bullpen in baseball. Even with the loss of Luke Jackson for the season, they added Tyler Thornburg, Collin McHugh, Kenley Jansen, & brought Darren O’Day back. McHugh just might end up being the best reliever on the staff, he’s that good. Jansen has been one of the premier closers for the 2010’s. And Darren O’Day was the undisputed leader of the Braves bullpen in 2020 which Tyler Matzek credits for beginning the Night Shift mentality. Oh yeah, Kirby Yates will make his Braves debut in the second half of the season.
Alex Anthopoulos has put on a clinic in roster-building. He’s put us on top of the NL East & is quickly cementing our place atop the division for a very long time to come.