Opponent Preview: Tyler Mahle & the Cincinnati Reds
With the return of Major League Baseball in 2022 comes the return of my Opponent Previews.
Each gameday I’ll publish a preview of the day’s opposing pitcher: what they throw, how they fare against certain batters, their tendencies, & a basic scouting report. Each preview that falls on the first game of a series, I’ll also preview the team overall & how they’re looking for the series.
Each Opponent Preview will be published the morning of.
Opponent Preview #1 is today, Opening Day. The most anticipated day of the year for baseball fans across this country and abroad thanks to the heavy international presence in America’s Pastime.
Tyler Mahle, Cincinnati Reds
Mahle made his MLB debut in 2017 as a 22-year old. He was drafted in the 7th round of the 2013 MLB June Amateur Draft out of Westminster High School in Westminster, California.
The 6’3” 210-lb righty has a career 26-31 record, 4.34 ERA, & 6.4 WAR. In 2021 those numbers were 13-6, 3.75, 4.9.
As you can see by that comparison, 2021 was a career year for Tyler. It was the first season of his career in which he had a record over .500, the first season in which he started at least 30 games (33), & also the first season in which he eclipsed the 200-strikeout mark.
2022 Spring Training
He had a particularly strong Spring Training this year. He pitched 10.2 innings over four starts. Over which, he logged a 3.38 ERA, 14 strikeouts, 4 walks, 11 hits, & a 1.406 WHIP; on his way to a 2-0 record.
Arsenal, Tendencies, & Against the Average
Mahle throws (in order of use) a four-seam fastball, slider, & splitter. His four-seamer was thrown 1697 times in 2021, making up 53.1% of his pitches; he threw his slider 994 times for a 31.1% usage rate, & his splitter was thrown only 15.8% of the time at 505 pitches.
He was only in the 29th percentile for chase rate in 2021, meaning he didn’t solicit many swings & misses on pitches thrown outside the zone compared to his peers.
His four-seamer averages 94 mph.
His slider averages out to 86.7 mph with 29.1 inches of drop & 2.8 inches of horizontal break.
His splitter’s average velocity is 86.4 mph with 28.4 inches of drop & 14.5 inches of horizontal break.
His fastball was thrown primarily to the upper-outside zone for righties. He kept his slider down really well last season, throwing it to all three bottom zones (left-right-center). His splitter was thrown almost exclusively low & in to righ-handed batters.
He surrendered 24 home runs last season. If he’d pitched ONLY IN Truist Park, that number would’ve been lowered to 19 home runs surrendered.
Pictured: Batted ball launch angles against Tyler Mahle in 2021. Credit: Baseball Savant
Cincinnati Reds
Pictured: Jonathan India, 2nd Baseman
The Reds are coming into 2022 off a rather peculiar offseason in which they dealt away Jesse Winker (Mariners), Eugenio Suárez (Mariners), Amir Garrett (Royals), & Sonny Gray (Twins).
First Baseman Joey Votto is now their highest-paid player at $25 million for 2022. Veteran Mike Moustakas is a dangerous bat, along with last year’s NL Rookie of the Year Jonathan India.
They’ll be without staff ace Luis Castillo & fellow starting pitcher Mike Minor due to injury.
2021
Cincinnati finished last season in 3rd Place within the National League Central with a record of 83-79, 12 games behind the division winner Milwaukee Brewers. They ended 2021 with a losing record on the road, 39-42.
Against lefties in 2021, the Reds batted .225 with a .307 OBP, .378 SLG
Against the Braves in 2021
Against the Braves in 2021, the Reds were 3-4 with an aggregate score of 31-25.
The biggest blowout was the season series finale when the Reds beat the Braves 12-3 on August 12th at Truist Park.
The lone shutout in the 2021 series came on June 27th when the Braves beat the Reds in Cincinnati 4-0. In that game Ronald Acuña Jr. & Austin Riley both hit solo home runs. Acuña & Freddie Freeman accounted for the other two RBI.
Kyle Muller got the win that day after 5 innings of 1-hit baseball; he also had 2 bases on balls & 9 strikeouts. In Shane Greene’s lone inning of work, he surrendered the only other Cincinnati hit.