It’s no secret that the Braves will be buyers at the Trade Deadline. It’s also no secret that the Braves’ most notable holes are a utility bat, one more starting pitcher, & to restock (as much as Anthopoulos can) a depleted farm system.
While the Reds have Luis Castillo that’s reportedly available, he’s likely out of reach of the Braves, given some of the contenders that will be in that bidding war; along with their farm systems.
There are two guys on their roster that are more attainable however; in Tyler Mahle & Brandon Drury.
What Cincinnati Will Want in Return
The Reds front office has long been searching for a possible franchise shortstop. They’ve currently got two shortstops ranked in their organizational top-30:
2021 1st-Round draft pick Matt McLain. (3rd-ranked prospect)
2021 3rd-Round draft pick José Torres. (15th-ranked prospect)
Torres profiles more as a second baseman at the MLB level, if he reaches the bigs. McLain doesn’t jump off the page at you in really any category.
The Braves have two shortstops that are locks for MLB service, albeit at two levels of talent (projected). Braden Shewmake & Vaughn Grissom are the only shortstops with at least one full year of MiLB service under their belt, that also project as an MLB starter.
Shewmake is the more likely SS included in a trade package, unless Anthopoulos fully intends on making a splash in the upcoming free agency scramble.
Grissom is seen as the eventual “guy” at shortstop for the Braves, but prospects are never sure things.
If Cincinnati is the trade partner then sending them Shewmake is likely a lock, unless the return is a reliever.
BUT, I find it improbable that Anthopoulos calls the Reds looking for a reliever unless he gets one of these two ⬇️ as the focal point in the return.
Brandon Drury
Let’s get this out of the way first: Brandon Drury is the best hitter the Reds have (in 2022). He leads the team in homeruns (18), 3rd in batting average (.278), 2nd in walk % among batters with 200 plate appearances (7.1%), 2nd in on-base percentage among batters with more than 10 plate appearances (.336), & 2nd in wRC+ at 134.
His 134 wRC+ would rank 2nd if he was a Brave. Only Austin Riley would be better (152 wRC+).
He would immediately step in at second base until Ozzie returned. Upon Ozzie’s return he would become our utility guy & most likely our DH against left-handed pitchers (Ozuna’s hitting .179 against lefties).
He’s played the majority of his innings at third base for the Reds, but that’s only because that was their weakest spot. He also has MLB experience in the outfield. He can do it all. He’d play ahead of Orlando Arcia, Robinson Canó, Guillermo Heredia, as well as Marcell Ozuna.
The best part? He’s only getting paid $700,000 this season. If the Braves picked him up today (22nd of July, hypothetically speaking) he would only cost the Braves $294,000.
In baseball money, that’s like buying a fat tomato sandwich on a hot July afternoon for a nickel.
Tyler Mahle
The most glaring hole the Braves have at this point in the season is that one last starting pitcher. Of course, adding a starter means one of the current starters will need to go; whether that’s to the bullpen, AAA, or another team. Another team is the most likely outcome there. My money would be on Charlie.
In 2022, Mahle is 3-7 with a 4.48 ERA. He’s giving up one homerun every 9 innings & some change. In 92.1 innings, he’s notched 102 strikeouts.
His FIP & WHIP are sitting at 3.54 & 1.3 respectively.
He’s not having a bad year, especially not as a guy who pitches for the Reds. They’re a dumpster fire. They spent this offseason selling every impact bat but Votto & India. They sent Gray to Minnesota & would’ve dealt Castillo if he were healthy.
He’s playing on a 1-yr/$5.2M contract this year ($2,184,000 owed for remainder of season), arbitration-eligible next year, & a free agent in 2024. Atlanta would likely make out like bandits in an arb case this offseason just due to the sheer underperformance so far in Cincinnati.
A year & a half of Tyler Mahle as your #5 is worth Braden Shewmake. Especially if Anthopoulos does this offseason what 99.99999% of Braves Country believes he will: re-signs Dansby or signs one of Trea Turner/Carlos Correa to a long-term deal.
Landing just one of these guys would take the Braves from a repeat-contender to a repeat-favorite.
Landing both of these guys - as improbable as I think it is - would send Atlanta to another stratosphere.
But I doubt even an organization as dysfunctional as Cincy would package the two, when they’re worth way more separate.
As much as I would love to see Cincinnati take Marcell Ozuna in a trade, it’s likely just a dream. Even though Marcell would absolutely MASH at Great American “Smallpark”, Cincinnati is clearly in salary dump mode. Meaning taking on Ozuna’s hefty contract isn’t in their plans. Unless Anthopoulos agrees to pay a portion of his remaining money owed.